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Archive for politics

Oct
20

An Aircraft Carrier Without Aircraft is Like…

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I feel sorry for the ship’s company of HMS Illustrious. They’re shortly going to be feeling very embarrassed to be serving on an aircraft carrier that doesn’t have any, err, aircraft.

I remember my time fondly on HMS Invincible, the now decommissioned sister ship to HMS Illustrious, but I also remember feeling a slight inferiority complex whenever we were on NATO operations with the US Navy or even with the French carrier Charles de Gaulle.

HMS Invincible - Bahamas 1997

The US Navy didn’t even consider our carriers proper Aircraft Carriers. The Invincible-class Aircraft Carriers being a similar size to the carriers that the US Marines use, but call Amphibious Assault Ships.

The new Queen Elizabeth class Aircraft Carriers will be three times larger and much more capable, and will no doubt be the pride of the Royal Navy. But in the meantime, with the announcement of the immediate scrapping of the Harrier fleet there will be no Carrier-based jets up until the new ships arrive in 2020, if indeed they arrive on time (which would be a surprise given the history of defence procurement).

I understand that ‘difficult decisions have to be made’ as David Cameron keeps saying, but it seems a major risk to me. If another Falklands type scenario popped up in 2018 I really don’t see how the UK would be able to mount a successful operation.

Not only that but the 2nd of the Queen Elizabeth class Aircraft Carriers will now be kept moth-balled on ‘Operational Readiness’. Operational Readiness basically means that it may be ready in 6 months, touch wood. The Falklands conflict lasted what, 74 days?

I’m not saying the Falklands conflict as such will happen again. After all, Argentina is now a democratic state (ironically as a result of the Falklands war) and wars do not usually happen between democratic states. But what about other tin-pot dictatorships around the world that would like to take a pot-shot at British dependancies? Surely an independent conventional armed force is as important as an independent nuclear deterrent?

The day I joined HMS Invincible I arrived by Sea King helicopter in the middle of the night to the ship at sea in the Adriatic. It was Operation Deny Flight – enforcing the no-fly zone over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Later we would be in the Persian Gulf enforcing the no-fly zone over Iraq.

They key thing is, on these lengthy deployments we either took over from, or were relieved by HMS Illustrious, so that the RN could maintain a continuous carrier group within the area. That’s no longer possible. Not without the help of allies anyway. Britain will be more dependant on the US Navy than ever before. The US never supported the Falklands campaign if I remember right?

I noticed the number of surface ships are also being reduced to 29.

Britannia rules the waves, I think not.

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May
06

D-Day

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It’s decision time. Millions of voters are now heading to the polls in the UK to cast their vote. Many of us expats have probably missed out on voting because the postal vote system doesn’t allow enough time to register and then get our vote off from the other side of the world.

It’s been an interesting few weeks in the election campaign and tomorrow could be even more interesting. In fact it could be chaos if it’s a hung parliament as the polls suggest.

Since I’m too young to remember the last hung parliament in Britain it’s interesting to see the process and the various scenarios that may play out.

A Well-Hung Parliament

If it’s a hung parliament the ball is in Gordon Brown’s court. He could choose to stay on as PM and try and form a minority government. That looks unlikely to happen though based on what Nick Clegg has been saying. Nick Clegg has indicated that he would support the party with the biggest mandate, and as he’s in favour of proportional representation you could guess that he means the party with the most number of votes, not necessarily seats. So surely that means he would support the Conservatives if the election turns out as the polls predict.

It may of course be likely that the Conservatives get the largest share of the votes and the largest number of seats, but not enough seats to get a majority. In this case surely GB would step down and the Queen would invite David Cameron to become PM? The problem will then arise when the Conservatives want to push through their legislative programme in the Queen’s Speech. If they don’t have a working majority of votes to pass the legislation they could get a vote of no-confidence from the other parties, in which case we may be looking at another election.

The magic number is 326 seats. However in reality the Conservatives could get a working majority with 310 seats if there are a number of Independents, and Sinn Fein have stated that they won’t take their seats. Plus the DUP is expected to join the Conservatives in a coalition if required.

The Ups and Downs of an Election Campaign

The election campaign has been fascinating to follow. I’m one of those geeks who likes to read the manifestos and watch each of the leadership debates (which only re-affirmed my previous choice of party).

The overall story of the election campaign is surely the demise of Labour. They must be due for a good kicking in the election? Bigot-gate was a funny development but I don’t think it’s made that much difference to the polls.

The first television debate was certainly a tipping point in the election. Who would have thought before then that the Lib Dems would poll as high as Labour? Nick Clegg certainly did well to cast his party as a complete alternative to the two ‘old’ parties. It looks like many people were convinced. It seems many are less convinced now they’ve delved into the Lib Dem policies!

The polls from the third leadership debate gave it to Cameron but I wasn’t so sure. I was left disappointed by his failure to answer some of the questions, which is a strategy usually more akin to GB than DC. It must have been a tactical decision to avoid direct questions from GB as I knew he had answers. I’ve heard him directly answer the questions in other QA’s about regional development agencies and child tax credit, etc, and give a good rationale to the policy decisions, so I couldn’t understand why he avoided directly tackling the accusations from GB.

The online YouTube/Facebook debate gave Nick Clegg a clear win. Not surprising really, the demographic of facebook and youtube was always going to be more advantageous to the Liberal Democrats. They’re the rebel party; the party of ideals. I’m all for idealisms but sometimes you have to mix that with a little pragmatism as well. Proportional Representation (PR) is a good example of why pragmatism should sometimes come ahead of ideals.

Proportional Representation

It’s the ultimate democratic method of voting, but paradoxically leads to the most undemocratic governments. Countries with PR tend to go through governments like Manchester City goes through managers. Coalition governments are the order of the day which invariably means deals done behind closed doors and no strong policy decisions.

I think David Cameron has the best idea. Keep the first past the post system so that the link between MPs and constituencies is maintained, but change the size of the constituencies so that all constituencies have an equal proportion of the overall vote. That way the proportion of seats will equal the proportion of the vote, and there wouldn’t be the situation we have today where Labour could get less votes but still have a majority of seats.

The polls close at 7am tomorrow our time so I’ll be up early on my day off watching with interest,and hope of a new team in charge.

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Mar
04

Fair and Balanced?

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We’re getting closer to General Election time again in the UK and as I’m still a British citizen and eligible to vote, my interest in British politics remains. Don’t ask me why, I just can’t seem to switch it off.

With Twitter, Google Reader and iphone apps providing an ever constant news feed, being on the other side of the world no longer means that we expats are out of touch with events in the motherland.

With the election looming ever closer it’s interesting to see how the media is reporting political stories and portraying the three main parties. Very few of the newspapers or TV networks can honestly claim to be non-partisan but at least they make the pretence of being fair and balanced. Some manage it more successfully than others.

So it’s been particular interesting this week to see the reporting over Lord Ashcroft’s admission of his non-dom status.

As expected, the unashamedly left wing papers have made a big thing of it, covering the story on the front pages. And then there’s the BBC.

I hold the BBC in high regard. The BBC news website is always the main source of international news for me. It generally has high editorial standards and, in most cases, can truly claim to be fair and balanced.

I am aware, however, that the BBC gets a lot of stick and is continuously accused of being too sympathetic towards Labour. I remember reading My Trade: A Short History of British Journalism by Andrew Marr who tacked this accusation by saying BBC editorial policy per se is not biased towards Labour, it’s just that the BBC happens to attract a lot of left-leaning journalists so there ends up being a de-facto bias towards Labour. Or words to that effect.

So with a strong editorial policy you would hope that any inherent bias in a story would get a re-write by the editor before being published, and when it comes to political stories, you would hope that the editing would be top-notch particularly when the political parties have started campaigning for election.

In the case of the Lord Ashcroft story the editorial policies have clearly failed. Why haven’t the BBC put equal emphasis on Labour’s Lord Paul and other Labour peers who are non-doms and large donors to the Labour party. Same goes with the Lib Dems. Lord Paul has even reportedly stated that he would rather give up his seat in the Lords than change his non-dom status.

Some of the BBC stories have been quite misleading and the reader could be led to believe that he’s been avoiding paying any tax for the last 10 years and completely props up the Conservative party, which simply isn’t true. He’s paid tax to the Inland Revenue on his UK earnings, he probably will have paid tax to another country on his oversees earnings (as most countries have a double-taxation agreement in place with Britain so that those earning income in the UK and overseas don’t have to get taxed twice on the same income), and furthermore his contributions to the Tories have accounted for less than 1% of donations this year.

Alan Johnson, the Home Secretary, has accused Michael Ashcroft of being unpatriotic. The same Michael Ashcroft who formed Crimestoppers, has raised millions for Help for Heroes and many other charities; and donated his Victoria Cross collection to the Imperial War Museum. That doesn’t sound unpatriotic to me.

At least the BBC are 100 times more fair and balanced than the network that has Fair and Balanced as its byline – Fox News.

If I was American I’d be embarrassed to have Fox News as the country’s biggest cable news network. This is a ‘Fair and Balanced’ news network that employes Republican governers, takes every opportunity it can to label Obama a marxist or communist, and even goes as far as organising rallies against government policy (the Tea Party rallies). Aren’t they supposed to report the news not make it? Fox News is akin to the Völkischer Beobachter – the newspaper of the Nazi Party.

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Nov
04

The End of Darkness?

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In just a few hours time, after what’s been the longest, most expensive, and perhaps most exciting presidential election ever, we’ll know who is going to be the 44th President of the United States.

Being a political news junkie, I’ve been following the race fairly closely for the last 18 months, and, like pretty much the rest of the world outside of America, I’m praying (figuratively speaking given I’m an atheist) that Barack Obama wins.

The world can’t handle another 4 years of a Republican administration in the White House.

A while back I read Bill Clinton’s autobiography – ‘My Life’, and he stated that although history will ultimately judge his presidency, his own view was based on a simple mental list he kept:- jobs created, increased access to healthcare, increased funding for childcare, number of people lifted out of poverty, etc.

Now lets apply that principle to George W. Bush. Here’s my mental list:

  • Over 4,500 coalition troop deaths in the Iraq War and hundreds of thousands civilian casualties resulting from a war, lest we forget, which was sold to us based on the threat of weapons of mass destruction which never materialised;
  • The trampling of human rights and civil liberties via the Patriot Act, Extraordinary Rendition, Water Boarding torture, Guantanamo Bay, Abu Ghraib, and other such terms we had all never heard of before 2001;
  • The failure to sign the Kyoto Treaty, and furthermore, the continual effort to block and hamper the fight against climate change;
  • The abysmal failure to act or show any leadership in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina’s devastation of New Orleans;
  • The complete wipeout of the federal budget surplus and creation of America’s biggest ever budget deficit;
  • etc, etc.

Maybe I’m being a bit unfair. On the plus side he did give records amount of financial relief to AIDS riddled countries in Africa, and was the first US president to acknowledge that a two-state solution was the only way to resolve the Israeli-Palestine issue.

However, on the first, the amount of money given to the fight against AIDS ($30bn if I remember correctly) now seems a pittance in comparison to the $1 trillion spent on the Iraq War to date and the $700 bail-out of the banks (a figure which looks like it could double). And on the second, what progress has been made? We seem no closer to a solution now than 8 years ago. At least 8 years ago there was no wall built around the West Bank. Given what many people believe are the root-causes of 9/11, you’d think that pushing the middle-east peace process would be right up there with catching Osama Bin Laden. Yet both seem to have took a back seat to what I believe is Bush’s number one priority – ‘Energy Security’.

I remember a few years ago visiting the White House website to see what his administration had to say about climate change. If you go there now there is a section titled Environment but a few years ago no such section existed. Yet there was a section titled Energy Security.

Some cynics may say that Energy Security was the entire basis for the invasion of Iraq. After all, we all know that the Bush family’s links to the oil companies are long and well documented.

The last 8 years have been a disaster and George W. Bush will probably be remembered as one of the worst and most unpopular American presidents ever.

So, will we see an end to this darkness?

I’m not naive enough to think that America will completely change its foreign policy and stance on climate change overnight if Barack Obama wins.

Lets just hope it is a new direction and an Obama win will go some way to reverse the damage inflicted by 8 years of the Neo-Cons in charge.

As for John McCain, I had a lot of respect for him before this process began. I’ve read about his 6 years imprisonment and torture during the Vietnam war, and his refusal to be released ahead of his compatriots. He truly is a war hero. But the way he has fought this campaign has surely undone a lot of the goodwill many people had for him.

Some political analysts say that he has simply learnt from his 2000 campaign to become the Republican presidential nominee against George Bush. In that campaign he mainly refused to go negative and resort to nasty tactics. Bush on the other hand had no such qualms and many Americans, bombarded with adverts and push-poll phone calls, fell hook, line and sinker for the Bush campaign’s smear tactics.

McCain has clearly taken some political campaigning lessons from Karl Rove and thrown his morals out of the window. At every step he has attempted to dumb the campaign issues down to the lowest common denominator; painting complex issues as black and white, and virtually labeling Obama as everything from a terrorist to a socialist.

The soundbites coming out of the McCain team over the last few weeks since the economic meltdown really has represented a low-point in intellectual debate. How many times did McCain quote Obama as using the words ‘share the wealth’, insinuating that Obama is somewhere to the left of Karl Marx with his policy of reducing income tax on the middle tax, as opposed to McCain’s policy of cutting corporation tax for big business. It amazes me how that word ‘socialist’ is used in american politics. It’s as if no american has ever visited Western Europe and seen the balance between economic growth and state welfare that has given a high standard of living with free(ish) health care for all.

Obviously I’m making grand generalisations here. It’s mainly commentators on the right side of politics in America (right as in opposite to left, not right as in opposite to wrong), such as the state news channel that is Fox News that have done the most to brainwash some Americans into believing that all the issues are black and white; free-markets – good, regulation – bad; religion – good, atheism – bad; etc.

I sometimes play a little game. I put on the Bill O’Reilly show on Fox News and see how long it is until I want to throw a brick at the TV or start laughing uncontrollably in an effort to hide the tears of frustration at the ridiculousness that is the pompous, egotistical Bill O’Reilly. It’s been particular amazing to hear his rants lately against the democratic bias of the MS-NBC news channel. Talk about ‘pot this is kettle’.

Anyway, speaking of black and white, some commentators are looking out for the purported Bradley Effect to see if the polls are wrong and McCain can clutch victory from the claws of defeat. The Bradley Effect is a theory that many voters tend to lie in polls when asked if they voted for the black candidate because they don’t want the pollster to think that they are racist. I guess we’ll find out in a few hours time whether there are truths to this theory.

I’ve been watching the Emmy award-winning drama John Adams over the last few weeks which is currently showing over here. I wonder what Adams, Washington, Franklin, et all would make of the circus that now exists as a result of Article 2 of the United States Constitution? Whatever happens, these are certainly interesting times we are living through.

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Jun
29

Puppet Chancellor?

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I don’t envy Alistair Darling. Will Gordon be able to let go of the Treasury?

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Apr
27

Major changes ahead?

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It’s set to be an interesting fortnight in UK politics. Will Labour get the kicking everyone expects in the local elections next Thursday? Will the Conservatives manage to get the magical 40% share of the vote – the target which analysts believe would be needed by the tories at the next General Election if they were to take power outright, avoiding a hung parliament? When will TB formally announce he is stepping down – Will it be immediately after the local elections or will he wait until he can resign on the back of good news as everyone expects? Will the SNP win the vote in Scotland setting the stage for a major debate about the Union and potentially a major battle with Gordon Brown? Will John Reid throw his hat into the ring and declare his candidacy for the labour leadership (I wished they’d stop calling it the Labour Leadership battle and call it what it is – the battle to be Prime Minister)? Will all these questions be answered before we flit to Australia?

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Mar
26

Historic day for Northern Ireland

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Interesting commentary about today’s events in The Independent. I never have liked Ian Paisley. I’m sure devolution in Northern Ireland could have been a lot more advanced by now if it wasn’t for the pig-headedness of Ian Paisley.

It can’t be a good thing to have a Reverend as First Minister when Religion is the cause of the troubles in Northern Ireland. If the objective is unification through changing attitudes and culture, surely the best step that could be taken is to remove religion from politics altogether. Especially when, according to a survey conducted by Dr Peter Shirlow of the University of Ulster, segregation has become more of a problem – growing since 1994.

So the ultra-Protestant Ian Paisley will have an ex terrorist Catholic for a Deputy, and a cabinet brimming with Catholic ministers. Should be interesting!

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Mar
24

The real Budget story unravels

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It takes a few days for the ‘analysts’ to work it out, but it’s clear now that Gordon Brown tried to pull a fast one on Wednesday. Here’s some of the facts that are starting to emerge:

Gordon Brown claimed that 4 out of 5 households would be better off because of his budget, yet leading accountants say this is impossible to prove because of missing information which includes:

  • The level of income at which basic-rate tax will become payable from 2008-2010
  • The level of salary above which National Insurance is payable for that time
  • Increases in personal allowances for people under the age of 65 from 2008-2010
  • When higher-rate tax becomes payable in 2008-2009
  • Details on who is able to claim working tax credits or child tax credits and how much
  • Levels of inflation the Treasury has assumed for its figures
  • No commitment to provide this information in next week’s Finance Bill, which will only cover tax changes in 2008-2008

It’s clear that the people who lose out most from this budget is single people with no kids on less than 18k, which, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, equates to 2 million people. The loss is due to the abolition of the 10p starting tax rate, and the fact that they can’t claim child tax credit to claw back the difference.

The other losers in the budget is people like myself – small business owners, because the Corporation Tax rate is rising from 20 to 22p for small companies, yet coming down for large companies.

All in all it’s a very strange Budget for a Labour government. So much for looking after the poorest in society and encouraging entrepreneurship.

And so much for the green measures – is £400 road tax really going to deter those who can afford a £50k Range Rover?

The Sun made itself look stupid, while other papers were taking a cautious reaction to the Budget, the Sun rejoiced with this headline:

Surely, The Sun’s core readership must be those low earners who will actually be worse off?

Touch wood, none of this will affect me, as we’ll be long gone by the time the changes start next April. The state of politics in this country is one of many reasons why we’re fleeing down under.

Categories : mediawatch, money, News, politics
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